Worst over on GDP front? These 3 factors will decide India’s growth


Elections, El Nino and oil are three key factors that may decide India’s growth trajectory in 2019, a report said. While rising oil prices and strengthening El Nino conditions will impact inflation, election-related uncertainty will weigh the most on India’s industrial production, news agency PTI reported citing Dun and Bradstreet’s (D&B) latest Economy Forecast.

The fall in economic activity in Q3FY19 may continue on account of global headwinds and other local issues, the report added. The economy must find ways to tackle issues related to aviation, power, banking, NBFCs as risks arising out of slowing economy may be difficult to evade.

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The factory production or industrial production index  IIP may be moderated by 1.0-1.5 per cent during March 2019, the report added.

The rising crude oil prices along with strengthening of El Nino conditions may have an effect on the rainfall during the months of rainfall in June and July. The conditions may create inflationary pressures for non-core segment, it added.

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The retail inflation may remain in the range of 2.7-2.9 per cent and wholesale inflation may remain in the range of 2.8-3.0 per cent during April 2019, respectively, news agency PTI reported citing D&B report.

Meanwhile, in a report released earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected India to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2019 and 7.5 per cent in 2020. India grew at 7.1 per cent in 2018 compared to 6.6 per cent of China’s. In 2019, the international body projected rate of growth for China

In 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a growth rate of 6.3 per cent for China and 6.1 per cent in 2020.

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